With the global economic picture continuing to be dominated by bearish sentiment, and oil prices falling to lows not seen since the start of the year, the picture couldn’t be more different in the tanker market. Volatility remains extreme, rates are strong and sentiment is elevated ahead of the anticipated seismic shift in oil trade flows. Whilst historically tanker markets have sometimes performed well in economic downturns, this is usually driven by supply and demand mismatches, which triggers a contango and associated floating storage or trading inefficiencies. However, this time it will be different. Oil demand still has some upside and although growth rates risk being revised lower, tonne miles are growing, and high gas prices have encouraged a switch from gas to oil in power generation. These factors combined with low fleet growth, should be enough to sustain and perhaps even improve tanker markets into 2023. However, there are a number of key interrelated dependencies.